Thursday, 9 July 2015

$1,081 gold bottom?

We've recently been updated by GM Jenkins on the 10 year USTs priced in silver chart, notably the ratio hitting its upper channel line at around the 1.50 level. GM is expecting a final lower low for gold shortly, before the trend changes back to a bull market.
I decided to see if the gold price was Fibonacci-friendly, and the chart below plots the key retracement levels from the bottom back in 1999 through to its peak in late 2011.
Here's the chart (I manually added the 23.6% level at $1,522):
Who knows what will happen, but the fib levels seem significant, so I'll be saving my pennies to buy the bottom at around $1,081, and I reckon it's coming within the next 5 weeks, in the midst of a liquidity crisis as stock markets take a dive.
I'm not expecting the 61.8% fib level to be hit.

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Wednesday, 8 July 2015

Don't believe the hype

Hello everyone.
Just a very quick post on the collapse in the Chinese stock market, and how it's being (mis)reported by mainstream media in China and in the West.
I'll assume all readers know that the Chinese stock market bubble has burst, and that the bursting is ongoing, with many stocks limit down today.
Reports in the media have all been saying the same things, which can be summarised as follows:
1. The Chinese government are doing all they can to stop the collapse.
2.The People's Bank of China is supporting the market, buying shares, helping brokers, and will do anything to keep it all propped up.
3. Interest rates are being slashed again to try to keep the bubble afloat.
4. Eventually, the Chinese will socialise the stock market and maybe the housing market.

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Friday, 5 June 2015

The (beginning of the) End



 Greetings friends!



We’re not yet at the end of the great bear market in gold (2011-2015), but I can confidently say it’s the beginning of the end.

[update 6/9] To clarify, based on a question in the comments, re: my statement to "expect a new low soon." Note that although the chart pattern suggests the next up leg in gold should begin when the $TNX/silver ratio hits the green line, in the past these points have been accompanied by a new low in gold first. So my best guess is that a new low is coming soon, while interest rates may also fall to keep the ratio near where it is.

[*update 6/15] Ratio is indeed still at 1.50 at the close of this week, with gold approaching a new low. One thing I should've made more clear is that the pertinent lows on this chart are for weekly closing prices, so a new low would be < $1158, which was the closing price the first week of March of this year. (It was also the lowest closing price in gold in 5 years, going all the way back to April 2010!) ...Working on some cool charts but no time yet to post.




Let it be widely known that I first called this 2 years ago. It actually surprised even me how relevant that post remains. 


However, I regret to say, a video I had posted at the top, the content of which I have only the vaguest recollection, but the titillation derived whereof I distinctly recall, has vanished…

Well, this one should be timeless. 

Note: Below the fold a chart that illustrates the trend in nominal interest rates since 1980, i refer to it in the comments


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Sunday, 15 May 2011

Interest, in silver

Guest Post by GM Jenkins

When we talk about the price of silver, we are of course talking about a ratio: how much the world values an ounce of silver compared to how much the world values a federal reserve note (FRN). Right now, the world's population values an American Eagle about 40 times more than it values a benny buck.

Other ratios might be more illuminating, however. For example, at any point in time, instead of swapping x FRNs for z ounces of silver, you can swap x FRNs for treasury notes and get x+y FRNs back in 10 yrs. What does the ratio of z/y look like?*




Note how well the lower two trend lines capture the movement of this ratio for the entirety of the decade's bull market ... until the center trend line was finally broken for good last August (see grey dots).

Note also that the ratio was a leading indicator: it started its steady ascent in April 2010, four months before the dollar price of silver did. In fact, only when the ratio broke through the center trend line did silver's August 2010 price explosion begin (see grey dots).

Note how the ratio tested the center trend line during "Turd's Bottom" in January 2011, and how previous resistance became support (whereas the center trend line had failed as support in 2008). That's when the ratio blasted past the upper trend line, only to come right back down to it, where it hovers today. Thus, this chart gives you information that the silver price chart doesn't: a clear demarcation of 2 phases of the silver bull market: the period from 2001 through Fall 2010, and everything afterwards.

Finally, note how tightly this ratio tracks the price of silver. It's doesn't have to do that (e.g. 2003 - 2004, or 2009 - 2010), and it's not intuitively obvious why it does when it does. Are we looking at the fingerprint of manipulation here? I'll have to think about this some more.

*Actually, stockcharts.com doesn't allow two ratios, i.e. z/y = z/x : y/x, so my chart depicts x/z : y/x (since x/z is just silver price, and $UST10Y a proxy for y/x). Similar idea. I'd like to see z/y if anyone can do that (i.e. ounces of silver per dollar divided by $UST10Y) .

Friday, 13 May 2011

When freezing in frost, peeing your pants keeps you warm a while..

...and then the inevitable happens. Much the same way as bailing out a bank only to find out they lied about how much they needed and there really is no means of saving them except to make every one else pay for it .... forever.
This is the version the Wall St. Journal did not want to publish.
Written by the leader of the "True Finn party".  I am bringing it to your attention because it is extremely well written and expresses the frustration in Europe by the common man.
It's the frustration of knowing there will be a train wreck whether you switch tracks or not. It's giving rise to Tea Party squared in Europe. The politicians are dubbing this sort of thinking "popularism" as a means of ridicule and dismissing their concerns and to try and put them in the same league as "The rent is too damn high party".  Dangerous mistake for the Bankers and Politicians. They did that with Hitler.

MAY 9, 2011
By TIMO SOINI

When I had the honor of leading the True Finn Party to electoral victory in April, we made a solemn promise to oppose the so-called bailouts of euro-zone member states. These bailouts are patently bad for Europe, bad for Finland and bad for the countries that have been forced to accept them. Europe is suffering from the economic gangrene of insolvency—both public and private. And unless we amputate that which cannot be saved, we risk poisoning the whole body.
The official wisdom is that Greece, Ireland and Portugal have been hit by a liquidity crisis, so they needed a momentary infusion of capital, after which everything would return to normal. But this official version is a lie, one that takes the ordinary people of Europe for idiots. They deserve better from politics and their leaders.
To understand the real nature and purpose of the bailouts, we first have to understand who really benefits from them. Let's follow the money.
At the risk of being accused of populism, we'll begin with the obvious: It is not the little guy that benefits. He is being milked and lied to in order to keep the insolvent system running. He is paid less and taxed more to provide the money needed to keep this Ponzi scheme going. Meanwhile, a kind of deadly symbiosis has developed between politicians and banks: Our political leaders borrow ever more money to pay off the banks, which return the favor by lending ever-more money back to our governments, keeping the scheme afloat.
In a true market economy, bad choices get penalized. Not here. When the inevitable failure of overindebted euro-zone countries came to light, a secret pact was made.
Instead of accepting losses on unsound investments—which would have led to the probable collapse and national bailout of some banks—it was decided to transfer the losses to taxpayers via loans, guarantees and opaque constructs such as the European Financial Stability Fund, Ireland's NAMA and a lineup of special-purpose vehicles that make Enron look simple. Some politicians understood this; others just panicked and did as they were told.
The money did not go to help indebted economies. It flowed through the European Central Bank and recipient states to the coffers of big banks and investment funds.
Further contrary to the official wisdom, the recipient states did not want such "help," not this way. The natural option for them was to admit insolvency and let failed private lenders, wherever they were based, eat their losses.
That was not to be. As former Finance Minister Brian Lenihan recently revealed, Ireland was forced to take the money. The same happened to Portuguese Prime Minister José Sócrates, although he may be less forthcoming than Mr. Lenihan about admitting it.


Why did the Brussels-Frankfurt extortion racket force these countries to accept the money along with "recovery" plans that would inevitably fail? Because they needed to please the tax-guzzling banks, which might otherwise refuse to turn up at the next Spanish, Belgian, Italian, or even French bond-auction.
Unfortunately for this financial and political cartel, their plan isn't working. Already under this scheme, Greece, Ireland and Portugal are ruined. They will never be able to save and grow fast enough to pay back the debts with which Brussels has saddled them in the name of saving them.
And so, unpurged, the gangrene spreads. The Spanish property sector is much bigger and more uncharted than that of Ireland. It is not just the cajas that are in trouble. There are major Spanish banks where what lies beneath the surface of the balance sheet may be a zombie, just as happened in Ireland for a while. The clock is ticking, and the problem is not going away.
Setting up the European Stability Mechanism is no solution. It would institutionalize the system of wealth transfers from private citizens to compromised politicians and otherwise failed bankers, creating a huge moral hazard and destroying what remains of Europe's competitive banking landscape.
Some defend the ESM, saying its use would always require unanimity. But the current mess with Portugal shows that the elite in Brussels will seek to enforce unanimity through pressure when it cannot be obtained by persuasion. Abolishing unanimity is only a matter of time. After that we have a full-fledged fiscal transfer union that is obviously in hock to Brussels' anti-growth corporatism.
Fortunately, it is not too late to stop the rot. For the banks, we need honest, serious stress tests. Stop the current politically inspired farce. Instead, have parallel assessments done by regulators and independent groups including stakeholders and academics. Trust, but verify.
Insolvent banks and financial institutions must be shut down, purging insolvency from the system. We must restore the market principle of freedom to fail.
If some banks are recapitalized with taxpayer money, taxpayers should get ownership stakes in return, and the entire board should be kicked out. But before any such taxpayer participation can be contemplated, it is essential to first apply big haircuts to bondholders.
For sovereign debt, the freedom to fail is again key. Significant restructuring is needed for genuine recovery. Yes, markets will punish defaulting states, but they are also quick to forgive. Current plans are destroying the real economies of Europe through elevated taxes and transfers of wealth from ordinary families to the coffers of insolvent states and banks. A restructuring that left a country's debt burden at a manageable level and encouraged a return to growth-oriented policies could lead to a swift return to international debt markets.
This is not just about economics. People feel betrayed. In Ireland, the incoming parties to the new government promised to hold senior bondholders responsible, but under pressure, they succumbed, leaving their voters with a sense of democratic disenfranchisement. The elites in Brussels have said that Finland must honor its commitments to its European partners, but Brussels is silent on whether national politicians should honor their commitments to their own voters. In a democracy, where we govern under the consent of the people, power is on loan. We do what we promise, even if it costs a dinner in Brussels, a "negative" media profile, or a seat in the cabinet.
When in Europe's long night of 1939-45, war came to Finland with the winter blizzards, my mother was one of eight siblings being raised on a small farm in central Finland where my grandparents eked out a frugal living. My two young uncles rushed to the front and were both wounded in action during Finland's chapter of Europe's most terrible bloodshed. I was raised to know that genocidal war must never again be visited on our continent and I came to understand the values and principles that originally motivated the establishment of what became the European Union.
This Europe, this vision, was one that offered the people of Finland and all of Europe the gift of peace founded on democracy, freedom, justice and subsidiarity. This is a Europe worth having, so it is with great distress that I see this project being put in jeopardy by a political elite who would sacrifice the interests of Europe's ordinary people in order to protect certain corporate interests.
Europe may still recover from this potentially terminal disease and decline. Insolvency must be purged from the system and it must be done openly and honestly. That path is not easy, but it is always the right path—for Finland, and for Europe.

Mr. Soini is the chairman of the True Finns Party in Finland





 

Wednesday, 11 May 2011

Two new essays from Martin Armstrong

The first one is on the Silver Crash
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Silver%20Crash%20of%202011%2005-06-2011.pdf

The Second one is "So you thought the Sovereign Debt crisis was over"
It hasn't been uploaded to the usual locations yet so I am going to do a little hunting for a freebie file hosting service and throw it up there.
Here it is:
http://FastFreeFileHosting.com/file/57075/So-you-thought-the-Sovereign-Debt-Crisis051111-pdf.html


Monday, 9 May 2011

PSLV premium may take a hit (update from original posted before Silver slam)





To anyone who bought PSLV on it's opening day congratulations you are smarter than the average bear. 
This is an FYI to anyone holding PSLV not a debate on whether the premium is simply true price discovery or a mini bubble.
Per Tom O' Brien Sprott is planning to dump some or all of his PSLV holdings. In  case you don't know who Tom is he is a self proclaimed Gold lover who has been calling a top for about a year or 10 in Gold. The video is here http://www.tfnn.com/hour01.html

Keep in mind this does not mean Sprott is getting out of Silver as he has plans to open a PSLV 2 in the future. However, depending on how he sells or the market reaction to this news the premium may take a hit. As always you have to do your own due diligence and if you are really concerned give PSLV a call.


Confirmed (sort of) From Zero HedgeSprott Silver Mutual fund