The Nominalists And The Realists

Have you ever had a “light bulb” moment? A moment when a huge amount of information just falls into place like the pieces of a puzzle spontaneously rearranging themselves into a clearly recognizable image? Here’s a passage that did that for me a couple of days ago:   

The two extreme types of monetary systems are: the 'realist' under which each unit of money has, as a counter-part in the balance-sheet of the bank that has issued it, an asset that can be sold on the market for an equal value; and the ‘nominalist’ under which money is nothing but a token, void of substance. All the systems that have been, are, or will be in force range somewhere between these two models. (my emphasis)

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$1,081 gold bottom?

We've recently been updated by GM Jenkins on the 10 year USTs priced in silver chart, notably the ratio hitting its upper channel line at around the 1.50 level. GM is expecting a final lower low for gold shortly, before the trend changes back to a bull market.

I decided to see if the gold price was Fibonacci-friendly, and the chart below plots the key retracement levels from the bottom back in 1999 through to its peak in late 2011.

Here's the chart (I manually added the 23.6% level at $1,522):

Who knows what will happen, but the fib levels seem significant, so I'll be saving my pennies to buy the bottom at around $1,081, and I reckon it's coming within the next 5 weeks, in the midst of a liquidity crisis as stock markets take a dive.

I'm not expecting the 61.8% fib level to be hit.

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Don't believe the hype

Hello everyone.

Just a very quick post on the collapse in the Chinese stock market, and how it's being (mis)reported by mainstream media in China and in the West.

I'll assume all readers know that the Chinese stock market bubble has burst, and that the bursting is ongoing, with many stocks limit down today.

Reports in the media have all been saying the same things, which can be summarised as follows:

1. The Chinese government are doing all they can to stop the collapse.

2.The People's Bank of China is supporting the market, buying shares, helping brokers, and will do anything to keep it all propped up.

3. Interest rates are being slashed again to try to keep the bubble afloat.

4. Eventually, the Chinese will socialise the stock market and maybe the housing market.

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